Evidence, Probability, and Cause
After each other is not because of each other.
Skill in training: Weigh evidence, state probability honestly, and separate correlation from cause.
The Situation
You started a new routine on Monday. By Thursday you slept badly twice. The routine, you conclude, is ruining your sleep.
Core Insight
Confidence must be proportional to evidence. Nothing more is honest; nothing less is useful.
Seneca
What else changed this week that your verdict has quietly ignored?
Examination Exercise
For the claim given, sort each item: supports, undermines, or irrelevant.
Two bad nights followed the change.
A deadline also began this week.
The routine felt difficult.
Practice Beyond the Academy
Pick one cause you asserted this week. Write its evidence for, against, and one alternative cause. Assign an honest percentage to your confidence. Record it.
Reflection · private to this device
- Where do you habitually promote correlation to cause?
- What does proportionate confidence sound like when spoken aloud?